Lyn Alden Bitcoin – Many People Don’t Know What’s Coming
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In this video, Lyn Alden explains the economic effects of the stimulus package on the economy. She also reveals why this is not the best time to hold cash in bonds. What follows is the summary of the interview.
Overall, the amount of inflation will partially correspond to how much fiscal stimulus we get. We have a certain amount, and that’s still working its way through the system, especially as we come out of lockdown. Some areas are still in lockdown, so this is holding down certain things like energy prices. We have certain constraints in place, and this is still rippling through the system, hence we have to see what happens to the wages and rents. But if fiscal stimulus stops right now because of how much debt is in the system, we would see those levels come back down.
However, if we do more rounds of fiscal stimulus, we’ll probably get ongoing inflation on a course that comes to certain trade-offs. If they don’t do fiscal stimulus because there’s so much, they will build up so much debt in the system and we’ll have more default risk and recession risk. But if there is a stimulus, they’re running the risk of having another burst of inflation and continuing to run hot.
Overall, this is not a very attractive environment to be holding bonds or cash. If interest rates are zero or 1%, you’re getting devalued on your purchasing power by holding that. And the real measure of inflation could even be above those figures while your rates are still zero or 1%. This is one of the bigger challenges.
One of the complexities is that historically, the market uses bond signals to judge what’s happening in the economy. For example, when you have a steep yield curve, that generally means that the economy expects more inflation and more growth. The reason is that investors prefer riskier assets.
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Credit: Stephan Livera (Full unedited video)
ORIGINALLYPOSTED: Aug. 2021
SLP294 Lyn Alden CPI Rises, Govt Debt, Oil & Gas, and Lightning Network [Video Interview]
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